The odds
as of Oct 20, 01:31 UTC- Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 76% +3
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 0 14% +4
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0 9% —
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0 8.5% +4
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 1% —
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0 1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+6 pts
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 13: 64% · Oct 14: 59% · Oct 15: 57% · Oct 16: 84% · Oct 17: 81% · Oct 18: 74% · Oct 19: 80% · Oct 20: 76%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Rate: No change, Dissents: >0; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
See it on Kalshi ↗