The odds
as of Oct 14, 13:23 UTC- Xiaomi 39% −27
- Alibaba 18% +7
- Moonshot 4.5% +2
- Z.ai 4.5% −3
- Baidu 2.5% −3
- ByteDance 2.5% −8
- Tencent 2.5% —
- DeepSeek 1.5% +1
Traded today$32K
Traded in all$41K
Favourite, 7 days−9 pts
Xiaomi, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 12: 63% · Oct 13: 66% · Oct 14: 45%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Xiaomi; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Xiaomi is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Oct 26, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
See it on Kalshi ↗