The odds
as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC- Maintain current rate 57% −36
- Cut 25bps 33% +42
- Hike 25bps 8% —
- Cut more than 50bps 3% —
- Cut 50bps 2% —
- Hike 50bps 2% —
- Hike more than 50bps 2% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days−31 pts
Maintain current rate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 93% · Oct 2: 94% · Oct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 94% · Oct 5: 93% · Oct 6: 93% · Oct 7: 93% · Oct 8: 55%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Maintain current rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Maintain current rate at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Settlement sources: Banco de México; Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗