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KalshiCloses November 5, 2026

Bank of Mexico rate decision in November

Maintain current rate leads at 57% (about 6 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC. It's down 36 points in the last 24 hours.

Maintain current rate 57% ▼ 36 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC
  • Maintain current rate 57% −36
  • Cut 25bps 33% +42
  • Hike 25bps 8% —
  • Cut more than 50bps 3% —
  • Cut 50bps 2% —
  • Hike 50bps 2% —
  • Hike more than 50bps 2% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days−31 pts

Maintain current rate, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 30Oct 855%

Oct 1: 93% · Oct 2: 94% · Oct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 94% · Oct 5: 93% · Oct 6: 93% · Oct 7: 93% · Oct 8: 55%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Maintain current rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Maintain current rate at November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).

Settlement sources: Banco de México; Trading Economics

See it on Kalshi ↗

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