The odds
as of Oct 10, 02:38 UTC- Chance of yes 5% −33
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$26K
Yes, 7 days−37 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 3: 42% · Oct 4: 39% · Oct 5: 39% · Oct 6: 39% · Oct 7: 39% · Oct 8: 39% · Oct 9: 3.5% · Oct 10: 5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 419.85, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike.
Settlement sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency
See it on Kalshi ↗