The odds
as of Oct 14, 05:24 UTC- Chance of yes 14% —
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$28K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 7: 14% · Oct 8: 14% · Oct 9: 14% · Oct 10: 14% · Oct 11: 14% · Oct 12: 14% · Oct 13: 14% · Oct 14: 14%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 is above 24,431 employees, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution uses annual average employment in Arizona for NAICS 3344 - Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing, as reported by BLS QCEW. The 24,431-employee baseline is fixed to the published 2025 value at market launch; later revisions do not change the strike. QCEW publishes detailed industries for every state and annual-average files once the full year is available. For reference, the complete 2025 annual QCEW data became available with the fourth-quarter release on June 2, 2026.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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