The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- At least 2000 97% +1
- At least 2500 92% —
- At least 3000 71% —
- At least 3500 62% —
- At least 4000 63% —
- At least 4500 52% —
- At least 5000 44% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$501
Traded in all$77K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
At least 2000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 97% · Oct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 94% · Oct 5: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 2000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: CDC
See it on Kalshi ↗