The odds
as of Oct 6, 01:39 UTC- Above 7.6 billion pounds 96% —
- Above 7.8 billion pounds 84% —
- Above 8.0 billion pounds 32% —
- Above 8.2 billion pounds 6.5% —
- Above 8.4 billion pounds 3.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$986
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 7.6 billion pounds, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 96% · Sep 30: 96% · Oct 1: 96% · Oct 2: 96% · Oct 3: 96% · Oct 4: 96% · Oct 5: 96% · Oct 6: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 7.6 billion pounds; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If USDA NASS reports that Arkansas broiler production for 2026 is above 7.6 billion pounds, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Arkansas broiler live-weight production, measured in pounds, in USDA NASS’s 2026 annual estimate. Importantly, the USDA-defined 2026 production period runs December 1, 2025 through November 30, 2026, rather than the calendar year. Broiler production includes other domestic meat-type strains. Resolution uses the first published 2026 annual estimate; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
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