The odds
as of Oct 11, 23:23 UTC- Below $2.00 2.5% —
- Below $2.20 2.5% —
- Below $2.40 4% —
- Below $2.60 5% —
- Below $2.80 6% −3
- Below $3.00 13% −4
- Below $3.20 15% −4
- Below $3.40 18% +4
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$792
Traded in all$67K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Below $3.60, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 4: 28% · Oct 5: 23% · Oct 6: 25% · Oct 7: 25% · Oct 8: 24% · Oct 9: 26% · Oct 10: 27% · Oct 11: 27%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Below $3.60; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance (March 23, 2026) through December 31, 2026, inclusive; prices reported earlier in 2026 do not count.
Settlement sources: AAA
See it on Kalshi ↗