The odds
as of Oct 11, 23:23 UTC- Above $4.45 30% −1
- Above $4.50 12% −7
- Above $4.55 12% −12
- Above $4.60 10% −9
- Above $4.65 10% −1
- Above $4.70 6% —
- Above $4.75 4.5% −3
- Above $4.80 3.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Above $4.45, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 4: 32% · Oct 5: 36% · Oct 6: 30% · Oct 7: 16% · Oct 8: 22% · Oct 9: 34% · Oct 10: 30% · Oct 11: 30%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $4.45; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.45 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: AAA
See it on Kalshi ↗