The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Chance of yes 3.3% —
Traded today$557
Traded in all$161K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 3.6% · Sep 29: 3.5% · Sep 30: 3.6% · Oct 1: 3.6% · Oct 2: 3.1% · Oct 3: 3.1% · Oct 4: 3.3% · Oct 5: 3.3%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗