The odds
as of Oct 10, 13:23 UTC- Chance of yes 3.5% +0.5
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$14.2M
Yes, 7 days+0.7 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 3: 2.5% · Oct 4: 2.9% · Oct 5: 2.9% · Oct 6: 2.9% · Oct 7: 2.9% · Oct 8: 3.1% · Oct 9: 3.1% · Oct 10: 3.6%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
See it on Polymarket ↗