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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

The market puts it at 2.5% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Oct 8, 07:34 UTC.

Yes 2.5%

The odds

as of Oct 8, 07:34 UTC
  • Chance of yes 2.5% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$1.4M
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 30Oct 83%

Oct 1: 2.9% · Oct 2: 2.9% · Oct 3: 2.6% · Oct 4: 2.6% · Oct 5: 2.6% · Oct 6: 2.6% · Oct 7: 2.5% · Oct 8: 2.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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