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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?

December 31 leads at 6.5% (a long shot, about one in 15) on Polymarket, as of Oct 30, 23:14 UTC. It's down 7 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 6.5% ▼ 7 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 30, 23:14 UTC
  • December 31 6.5% −7
  • October 31 <1% −4

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$809
Traded in all$152K
Favourite, 7 days−9 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 23Oct 307%

Oct 23: 16% · Oct 24: 14% · Oct 25: 14% · Oct 26: 14% · Oct 27: 14% · Oct 28: 14% · Oct 29: 14% · Oct 30: 6.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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