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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?

The market puts it at 23% — about 2 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 15, 15:26 UTC. It's down 13 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 23% ▼ 13 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 15, 15:26 UTC
  • Chance of yes 23% −13
Traded today$533
Traded in all$63K
Yes, 7 days−17 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 7Oct 1523%

Oct 8: 35% · Oct 9: 35% · Oct 10: 36% · Oct 11: 34% · Oct 12: 32% · Oct 13: 34% · Oct 14: 36% · Oct 15: 23%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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