The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Chance of yes 2.1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$449K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 2.4% · Sep 29: 2.5% · Sep 30: 2.4% · Oct 1: 2.2% · Oct 2: 2.4% · Oct 3: 2.4% · Oct 4: 2% · Oct 5: 2.2%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗