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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2029

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

December 31, 2028 leads at 31% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 13, 23:19 UTC.

December 31, 2028 31%

The odds

as of Oct 13, 23:19 UTC
  • December 31, 2028 31% —
  • December 31, 2027 14% −4
  • December 31, 2026 3.5% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$2K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 daysunch

December 31, 2028, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 6Oct 1331%

Oct 6: 31% · Oct 7: 31% · Oct 8: 31% · Oct 9: 31% · Oct 10: 31% · Oct 11: 31% · Oct 12: 31% · Oct 13: 31%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
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