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Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by...?

December 31 leads at 20% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 19, 15:24 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 20% ▲ 0.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 19, 15:24 UTC
  • December 31 20% +0.5
  • October 31 8.1% +6

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$645
Traded in all$65K
Favourite, 7 days+6 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 11Oct 1920%

Oct 12: 14% · Oct 13: 17% · Oct 14: 16% · Oct 15: 17% · Oct 16: 17% · Oct 17: 18% · Oct 18: 21% · Oct 19: 20%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, or Pakistan formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and any country reported to have joined; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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