Moving
PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

The market puts it at 15% — about 2 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC. It's down 10 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC
  • Chance of yes 15% −10
Traded today$834
Traded in all$56K
Yes, 7 days−11 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 515%

Sep 28: 26% · Sep 29: 26% · Sep 30: 27% · Oct 1: 27% · Oct 2: 27% · Oct 3: 24% · Oct 4: 25% · Oct 5: 15%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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