The odds
as of Oct 13, 19:21 UTC- 1560 45% −14
- 1580 17% +0.5
- 1600 6.3% +0.5
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$654
Traded in all$237K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
1560, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 6: 44% · Oct 7: 46% · Oct 8: 44% · Oct 9: 42% · Oct 10: 52% · Oct 11: 56% · Oct 12: 59% · Oct 13: 49%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
See it on Polymarket ↗