The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Anthropic 96% —
- OpenAI 3.6% —
Traded today$815
Traded in all$417K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
Anthropic, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 95% · Sep 29: 96% · Sep 30: 96% · Oct 1: 96% · Oct 2: 97% · Oct 3: 97% · Oct 4: 97% · Oct 5: 96%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗