The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Anthropic 95% −1
- OpenAI 6.5% +5
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$409K
Favourite, 7 days+2.5 pts
Anthropic, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 92% · Sep 29: 94% · Sep 30: 94% · Oct 1: 95% · Oct 2: 95% · Oct 3: 95% · Oct 4: 95% · Oct 5: 95%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Anthropic; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Securities and Exchange Commission; NYSE; NASDAQ; the New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg; BBC; ABC; Reuters; CNBC; Financial Times
See it on Kalshi ↗