The odds
as of Oct 30, 19:14 UTC- Chance of yes 1.8% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$2.2M
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 23: 2.2% · Oct 24: 2.2% · Oct 25: 2.1% · Oct 26: 1% · Oct 27: 1.5% · Oct 28: 1.5% · Oct 29: 1.5% · Oct 30: 1.7%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
See it on Polymarket ↗