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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

US leads at 44% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC. It's up 18 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 23:22 UTC
  • US 44% +18
  • Australia 19% +1
  • Italy 17% +1
  • UK 13% —
  • Greece 11% +3.6
  • France 9% +0.5
  • Germany 8.5% +0.5
  • Netherlands 4.5% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$537
Traded in all$51K
Favourite, 7 days+17 pts

US, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 544%

Sep 28: 28% · Sep 29: 28% · Sep 30: 27% · Oct 1: 28% · Oct 2: 27% · Oct 3: 27% · Oct 4: 27% · Oct 5: 44%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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