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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 31 leads at 75% (about 8 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 13:33 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 13:33 UTC
  • December 31 75% +0.5
  • November 30 53% −1
  • November 15 43% +1

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$32K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days+27 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 3Oct 575%

Oct 3: 52% · Oct 4: 56% · Oct 5: 75%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George Washington (CVN-73) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Washington will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS George Washington left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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