Moving
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

US x China Military clash before 2027?

The market puts it at 2.2% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC
  • Chance of yes 2.2% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$218K
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 52%

Sep 28: 2.6% · Sep 29: 2.6% · Sep 30: 2.4% · Oct 1: 2.4% · Oct 2: 2.4% · Oct 3: 2.4% · Oct 4: 2.4% · Oct 5: 2.2%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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