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PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

The market puts it at 12% — a long shot, about one in 9 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC. It's down 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • Chance of yes 12% −0.5
Traded today$615
Traded in all$411K
Yes, 7 days−16 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 512%

Sep 28: 30% · Sep 29: 27% · Sep 30: 22% · Oct 1: 19% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 11% · Oct 5: 12%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
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