The odds
as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC- Chance of yes 2.9% —
Traded today$787
Traded in all$192K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 2.9% · Sep 29: 2.9% · Sep 30: 2.9% · Oct 1: 2.9% · Oct 2: 2.9% · Oct 3: 2.9% · Oct 4: 2.9% · Oct 5: 2.9%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
See it on Polymarket ↗