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PolymarketCloses November 3, 2026

Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?

The market puts it at 2.4% — a very long shot — on Polymarket, as of Oct 31, 14:14 UTC. It's down 5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 2.4% ▼ 5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 31, 14:14 UTC
  • Chance of yes 2.4% −5
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$25K
Yes, 7 days−1.6 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 23Oct 312%

Oct 24: 4% · Oct 25: 4% · Oct 26: 4% · Oct 27: 4% · Oct 28: 3.5% · Oct 29: 6% · Oct 30: 7.5% · Oct 31: 2.4%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R)'s hourly odds value is higher than Mary Peltola (D)'s hourly odds value in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Dan Sullivan (R) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) or Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-alaska-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
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