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PolymarketCloses July 1, 2027

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 2026 leads at 24% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC. It's down 1.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • December 31, 2026 24% −1.5
  • October 31, 2026 14% —
  • October 17, 2026 7.5% −1.5
  • October 10, 2026 3.5% −2

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$5K
Traded in all$63K
Favourite, 7 days+6.5 pts

December 31, 2026, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 524%

Sep 28: 17% · Sep 29: 17% · Sep 30: 13% · Oct 1: 13% · Oct 2: 52% · Oct 3: 31% · Oct 4: 25% · Oct 5: 24%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia enter Yemen for combat-related military purposes by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by Saudi Arabia; 2) be publicly acknowledged to have entered Yemen for a combat-related military purpose. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however infantry engaging Yemeni forces, or personnel conducting combat operations from Yemeni soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not members of the Saudi Arabian armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Saudi command or on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Saudi-led coalition, will not qualify. Personnel must be physically present on the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Air or naval operations conducted from outside Yemeni territory, including air strikes, missile strikes, drone strikes and overflights, will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia, including the Saudi Ministry of Defense; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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