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PolymarketCloses March 1, 2027

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 28 leads at 45% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 2, 18:20 UTC. It's down 16 points in the last 24 hours.

No Next Minister by Feb 28 45% ▼ 16 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 2, 18:20 UTC
  • No Next Minister by Feb 28 45% −16
  • Avigdor Lieberman 23% −7
  • Yoram Cohen 22% −10
  • Michael Malchieli 20% −9
  • Aryeh Deri 16% —
  • Yoav Ben-Tzur 11% —
  • Miri Regev 8.6% —
  • Orit Farkash-Hacohen 7.5% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−3.5 pts

No Next Minister by Feb 28, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 25Nov 245%

Oct 26: 38% · Oct 27: 45% · Oct 28: 50% · Oct 29: 64% · Oct 30: 60% · Oct 31: 62% · Nov 1: 49% · Nov 2: 45%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Interior in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Interior will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Interior” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Interior are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Interior assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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