The odds
as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC- Chance of yes 3.2% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$8.5M
Yes, 7 days−1.3 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 4.5% · Sep 29: 4.1% · Sep 30: 4.9% · Oct 1: 5.6% · Oct 2: 3.1% · Oct 3: 3.1% · Oct 4: 3.2% · Oct 5: 3.2%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗