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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 2027 leads at 34% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 10, 05:25 UTC.

December 31, 2027 34%

The odds

as of Oct 10, 05:25 UTC
  • December 31, 2027 34% —
  • December 31, 2026 12% +0.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$538
Traded in all$2.1M
Favourite, 7 days+8 pts

December 31, 2027, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 9Oct 1029%

Oct 9: 28% · Oct 10: 29%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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