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PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

The market puts it at 13% — a long shot, about one in 8 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC. It's down 1 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC
  • Chance of yes 13% −1
Traded today$813
Traded in all$1.9M
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 513%

Sep 28: 13% · Sep 29: 9.5% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 13% · Oct 5: 13%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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