Moving
PolymarketCloses October 31, 2026

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 31 leads at 59% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC. It's up 18 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC
  • October 31 59% +18
  • October 15 29% +2.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$864
Traded in all$129K
Favourite, 7 days+7 pts

October 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 559%

Sep 28: 52% · Sep 29: 47% · Sep 30: 48% · Oct 1: 33% · Oct 2: 38% · Oct 3: 38% · Oct 4: 56% · Oct 5: 59%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
See it on Polymarket ↗

World

More markets like this

All →