The odds
as of Oct 5, 17:23 UTC- June 30, 2027 9.5% +1
- December 31, 2026 2.9% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$608
Traded in all$147K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
June 30, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 6.5% · Sep 29: 8.5% · Sep 30: 8.5% · Oct 1: 8.5% · Oct 2: 8.5% · Oct 3: 8.5% · Oct 4: 8.5% · Oct 5: 9%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.
Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗