The odds
as of Oct 13, 19:21 UTC- Above 85 93% —
- Above 89 65% +4
- Above 90 49% −1
- Above 91 32% +1
- Above 92 4% −17
- Above 93 2% −13
- Above 94 9.5% —
- Above 95 2% −9
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+12 pts
Above 85, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 6: 81% · Oct 7: 90% · Oct 8: 92% · Oct 9: 93% · Oct 10: 93% · Oct 11: 93% · Oct 12: 93% · Oct 13: 93%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 85; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc Target Foot Traffic (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 85, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 7th. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Target Foot Traffic was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more visits than year prior, 97 = 3% fewer visits than year prior. The index is measured by Carbon Arc mobile location data across 200M+ devices, matched to the same calendar days of the prior year and normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays. The panel updates daily as new data arrives.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗