The odds
as of Oct 19, 21:22 UTC- 2.1% to 2.5% 18% +0.5
- 2.6% to 3.0% 11% —
- 1.1% to 1.5% 11% —
- 3.6% to 4.0% 9% —
- 0.1% to 0.5% 6.5% —
- 4.6% to 5.0% 6.5% —
- 6.1% or Above 6.5% —
- 5.6% to 6.0% 4.5% —
Traded today$550
Traded in all$79K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
2.1% to 2.5%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 12: 16% · Oct 13: 15% · Oct 14: 14% · Oct 15: 15% · Oct 16: 16% · Oct 17: 16% · Oct 18: 16% · Oct 19: 18%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 2.1% to 2.5%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the United States real GDP growth in 2032 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2032. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2032 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2032 GDP in early 2033. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis
See it on Kalshi ↗