The odds
as of Nov 3, 21:15 UTC- Above 99 96% +2
- Above 103 28% −28
- Above 105 16% —
- Above 107 12% —
- Above 109 2% —
- Above 111 1.5% —
- Above 115 1.5% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
Above 99, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 92% · Oct 28: 92% · Oct 29: 95% · Oct 30: 95% · Oct 31: 93% · Nov 1: 92% · Nov 2: 94% · Nov 3: 94%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 99; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc American Airlines Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 99, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 4th. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means American Airlines Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. The index is measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗