The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Above $4.20 55% +6
- Above $4.40 21% −3
- Above $4.60 20% —
- Above $4.80 17% +2
- Above $5.00 12% −6
- Above $5.20 10% −2
- Above $5.40 9% —
- Above $5.60 5.5% +4
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$113K
Favourite, 7 days+18 pts
Above $4.20, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 39% · Sep 29: 34% · Sep 30: 35% · Oct 1: 39% · Oct 2: 48% · Oct 3: 52% · Oct 4: 54% · Oct 5: 55%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $4.20; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: AAA
See it on Kalshi ↗