The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Mariah Carey 91% —
- Morgan Wallen 31% +2
- Beyoncé 30% +2
- Kendrick Lamar 21% —
- Sabrina Carpenter 20% —
- Post Malone 17% —
- Olivia Dean 17% —
- Tate McRae 15% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$253K
Favourite, 7 days−1.5 pts
Mariah Carey, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 92% · Oct 3: 91%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Mariah Carey; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Mariah Carey has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi. For the purposes of this market, the last Billboard chart that will be included is the one published for Dec 26, 2026.
Settlement sources: Billboard
See it on Kalshi ↗