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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

December 31 leads at 48% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 31, 11:13 UTC. It's up 18 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 48% ▲ 18 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 31, 11:13 UTC
  • December 31 48% +18
  • October 31 4.8% −1

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$626
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+18 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 23Oct 3147%

Oct 24: 23% · Oct 25: 21% · Oct 26: 24% · Oct 27: 25% · Oct 28: 25% · Oct 29: 33% · Oct 30: 33% · Oct 31: 47%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Terny, Donetsk Oblast, (49.097467° N, 37.965439° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (Story Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375; Web Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW Web Map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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