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PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

December 31 leads at 8.5% (a long shot, about one in 12) on Polymarket, as of Oct 8, 14:29 UTC. It's down 2 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 8.5% ▼ 2 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 8, 14:29 UTC
  • December 31 8.5% −2
  • October 31 3.4% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$529
Traded in all$57K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 30Oct 89%

Oct 1: 11% · Oct 2: 11% · Oct 3: 11% · Oct 4: 11% · Oct 5: 11% · Oct 6: 11% · Oct 7: 11% · Oct 8: 8.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
Ukrainian airspace has been closed to air traffic since the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022. Boryspil International Airport (KBP / UKBB), located near Kyiv, suspended all routine operations immediately following the start of hostilities, and routine and general flights remain suspended. This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one manned aircraft successfully lands at or takes off from Boryspil International Airport between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Eligible flights include any manned fixed-wing aircraft or rotorcraft (helicopter), regardless of registration, owner, or purpose (e.g., commercial passenger, cargo, military transport, diplomatic or state flight, technical ferry, or emergency landing). Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, drones, or loitering munitions), touch-and-go passes without a full touchdown and stop or taxi, and landings or departures occurring outside the physical boundaries of Boryspil International Airport will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be verified radar and ADS-B flight tracking data (e.g., Flightradar24, ADS-B Exchange) and official announcements from Boryspil International Airport, the State Aviation Administration of Ukraine, or the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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