The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Nicki Minaj 60% −17
- JAY-Z 41% —
- Frank Ocean 20% +2.5
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$704
Traded in all$142K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Nicki Minaj, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 89% · Sep 29: 84% · Sep 30: 77% · Oct 1: 75% · Oct 2: 75% · Oct 3: 75% · Oct 4: 62% · Oct 5: 60%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances or leaks) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, remixes, or alternate versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count.
If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them.
For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution.
The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
See it on Polymarket ↗