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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

US military draft authorized in 2026?

The market puts it at 3.9% — a long shot, about one in 26 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC
  • Chance of yes 3.9% —
Traded today$730
Traded in all$536K
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 54%

Sep 28: 3.7% · Sep 29: 3.8% · Sep 30: 4% · Oct 1: 3.9% · Oct 2: 3.9% · Oct 3: 3.6% · Oct 4: 3.6% · Oct 5: 3.9%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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