The odds
as of Nov 3, 11:16 UTC- Chance of yes 6.5% +0.5
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$27K
Yes, 7 days−1.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 30: 17% · Oct 31: 6.5% · Nov 1: 8% · Nov 2: 5.5% · Nov 3: 6.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Tusk ceases to be Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Tusk's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Tusk and the government of Poland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗