The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- December 31 16% +1
- October 31 2.7% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$864
Traded in all$399K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
December 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 17% · Sep 29: 18% · Sep 30: 19% · Oct 1: 18% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 15% · Oct 4: 16% · Oct 5: 16%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗