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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

8 leads at 62% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC. It's up 5.4 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • 8 62% +5.4
  • 9 30% —
  • 10 7.6% —
  • 12 <1% —
  • 11 <1% —
  • 13 <1% —
  • 15+ <1% —
  • 14 <1% —
Traded today$699
Traded in all$1.7M
Favourite, 7 daysunch

8, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 562%

Sep 28: 62% · Sep 29: 64% · Sep 30: 63% · Oct 1: 65% · Oct 2: 65% · Oct 3: 62% · Oct 4: 57% · Oct 5: 62%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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