The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 89.5 94% −0.5
- Above 90 84% —
- Above 90.5 27% —
- Above 91 6% −37
- Above 91.5 8% −5
- Above 92 6% +3
- Above 92.5 9% —
- Above 93 4% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+24 pts
Above 89.5, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 53% · Sep 29: 91% · Sep 30: 92% · Oct 1: 93% · Oct 2: 93% · Oct 3: 94% · Oct 4: 94% · Oct 5: 94%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 89.5; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Carbon Arc Target Foot Traffic (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 89.5, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Target Foot Traffic was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more visits than year prior, 97 = 3% fewer visits than year prior. The index is measured by Carbon Arc mobile location data across 200M+ devices, matched to the same calendar days of the prior year and normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays. The panel updates daily as new data arrives.
Settlement sources: Carbon Arc
See it on Kalshi ↗