The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Chance of yes 4.1% −0.6
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$1.4M
Yes, 7 days−1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 4.4% · Sep 29: 4.4% · Sep 30: 4.9% · Oct 1: 4.2% · Oct 2: 4.2% · Oct 3: 5.1% · Oct 4: 4.1% · Oct 5: 4.1%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close and determine on the first 10 AM ET following the occurrence of the event if the event occurs prior to the target date.
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗