The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 8.4 million TEUs 96% —
- Above 8.5 million TEUs 92% —
- Above 8.6 million TEUs 89% —
- Above 8.7 million TEUs 75% —
- Above 8.8 million TEUs 60% —
- Above 8.9 million TEUs 36% −1
- Above 9.0 million TEUs 13% —
- Above 9.1 million TEUs 9.5% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$194K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 8.4 million TEUs, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 96% · Sep 29: 96% · Sep 30: 96% · Oct 1: 96% · Oct 2: 96% · Oct 3: 96% · Oct 4: 96% · Oct 5: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 8.4 million TEUs; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Port Authority reports that the Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in calendar year 2026 is above 8.4 million TEUs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Port Authority’s Total TEUs figure, including both loaded and empty import and export containers. The market does not use loaded TEUs alone. Use Monthly Cargo Volumes → 2026 → YTD December → Total TEUs.
Settlement sources: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
See it on Kalshi ↗